🏔️ GEMONA DEL FRIULI — WX BRIEFING 📅 4 Jul 2026 (Fri) — Europe/Rome 🎯 Monte Quarnan (46.281, 13.247) ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 📊 MODEL CONSENSUS (10:00-19:00) 🔹 ECMWF T: 23-25°C Rain: 0.3mm Wind: 10 km/h (gusts N/A) Dir: 240°→203° (var) CAPE: 0→460 J/kg Cloud: avg 16% (low avg 0%) 🔹 GFS T: 22-25°C Rain: 0.2mm Wind: 12 km/h (gusts 8) Dir: 185°→208° (var) CAPE: 0→400 J/kg Cloud: avg 33% (low avg 32%) 🔹 ICON T: 22-26°C Rain: dry Wind: 13 km/h (gusts 28) Dir: 185°→227° (var) CAPE: 0→260 J/kg Cloud: avg 10% (low avg 1%) ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🤝 CONSENSUS ✅ AGREE: Dry all day. Zero rain 10-18h. ✅ AGREE: Light-moderate wind 5-13 km/h ✅ AGREE: CAPE builds afternoon (thermal potential) ✅ AGREE: Warm 22-26°C ⚠️ DISAGREE: • GFS: 100% cloud at 10:00 → clears → returns 37% at 19:00 • ECMWF/ICON: minimal cloud (5-19%) all day • ICON: stronger wind 11-13 km/h + gusts 24-28 km/h • ECMWF: no gust data (model limitation) • GFS: cooler, 22-25°C vs ICON 22-26°C ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🪂 PARAGLIDING ASSESSMENT Verdict: 🟢 GO Window: 11:00-17:00 (best 12:00-16:00) • Dry all day, no thunderstorm risk until late afternoon • CAPE builds 0→460 J/kg — weak-moderate thermals • Wind manageable: 5-13 km/h S/SW (valley thermal direction) • ICON gusts 24-28 km/h — watchable but flyable for experienced pilot • GFS morning overcast could delay thermal start — if low cloud hangs, wait • Cloud cover low all models — no overdevelopment risk until ~18:00 ⚠️ Risks: • ICON wind picks up afternoon — valley wind could strengthen • Late afternoon CAPE >300 — isolated CB possible after 18:00 • If GFS overcast verifies, thermals weak until cloud clears Rec: Fly midday-early afternoon. Land by 17:00 if ICON wind verifies. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ Models: ECMWF · GFS · ICON via Open-Meteo Auto-generated by jaype.bot